On Thursday, the crypto community eagerly awaits the sentencing of Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced FTX founder, by a Manhattan judge. This decision will have significant implications for both Bankman-Fried and the degens who have placed high-stakes bets on the length of his prison sentence.
On Polymarket, a leading crypto gambling site, users have collectively wagered over $657,000 on various sentencing outcomes for Bankman-Fried. The options range from less than 5 years to over 50 years, with the highest probability currently assigned to sentencing ranges of 20-to-30 years, 30-to-40 years, and 40-to-50 years.
Despite pleas for a lighter sentence from Bankman-Fried’s attorneys, online gamblers are skeptical of a lenient outcome, with odds of less than five years or a 5-to-10 year sentence being low. Federal prosecutors recommended a sentence of 40-to-50 years, which has garnered favor among degens. The possibility of a sentence exceeding 50 years is considered unlikely, with odds at 8%.
While most bets have been placed on outcomes that offer modest profit margins, some gamblers are eyeing more lucrative options. For example, a bet on Bankman-Fried receiving a sentence between 10 and 20 years could yield substantial returns.
As the crypto industry closely follows the outcome of this case, the implications for FTX and the broader market remain uncertain. The diverse range of betting options reflects the complexity and speculation surrounding this high-profile event, underscoring the intersection of finance, gambling, and legal proceedings in the crypto landscape.
