On March 28, renowned crypto analyst and Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen raised a compelling question about the current Bitcoin market cycle: Is it following a traditional pattern or is it showing signs of being “left-translated,” with the peak happening earlier than expected?
Despite hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin still has three weeks until the halving event, raising the possibility of an earlier cycle peak compared to previous patterns that saw peaks occurring a year after the halving.
One key factor influencing the trajectory of this cycle is the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Historically, Bitcoin markets have experienced pullbacks following rate cuts, aligning with previous cycles that peaked in the year following the halving. However, if there is no significant correction post-rate cuts, it could indicate a left-translated cycle.
The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 5.5% sparked immediate volatility in the market. With the next policy meeting scheduled for May, most observers predict no change in rates, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Drawing parallels between the price action in 2013 and 2021, Cowen speculated that a similar pattern in the current cycle could suggest a left-translated peak. Comparing returns during post-halving years, he hinted that a peak in 2023 instead of 2024 could be indicative of a left-translated cycle.
Glassnode, an on-chain analytics platform, also compared the current market cycle to previous ones. By analyzing the duration and distance from the April 2021 peak, they found similarities to the 2018-21 cycle, raising interesting insights into the current market trends.
In conclusion, the direction of this bull market cycle hinges on Bitcoin’s response to rate cuts later in the year. Whether the market cools off after April or if it picks up again in Q4 will determine the trajectory of the current cycle and its peak. The crypto community eagerly awaits further developments in this intriguing market cycle.
