Republican candidate Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election saw a significant surge on Polymarket following the first debate, indicating a shift in market sentiment. It is becoming increasingly apparent on the platform that there is doubt surrounding President Biden’s ability to secure the Democratic nomination or stay in the race.
Blockchain bettors exhibited skepticism towards President Biden’s performance in the initial debate of the 2024 election cycle, leading to a notable rise in former President Trump’s chances of victory to as high as 67%. Currently, a substantial sum of approximately $188 million is at stake in a contract predicting the outcome of the 2024 election, with around $23 million placed on Trump and $21 million on Biden.
Polymarket experienced a brief period of downtime at the start of the debate due to a surge in traffic driven by the heightened market activity. The growing doubts surrounding Biden’s electoral prospects up until election day are underscored by the evolving market sentiment.
Market data from Polymarket suggests that there is less than a 70% likelihood of Biden emerging as the Democratic nominee, with figures for California governor Gavin Newsom reaching 17% and Michelle Obama rising to 7%. Moreover, a separate contract speculating on Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race during the debate peaked at 43%.
In parallel, PoliFi token traders witnessed significant movement in major tokens linked to Trump and Biden, with both experiencing notable declines. The MAGA token, identified by the ticker TRUMP, is down by 12.5%, while the BODEN token has decreased by 34%. Additionally, the TREMP token is down by 10%, and the DJT token, associated with Barron Trump, has fallen by 5%.
Despite crypto emerging as a focal point in the Republican campaign, it did not feature in this debate. Notably, a Polymarket contract gauging the likelihood of Trump mentioning crypto or bitcoin during the election remained low, peaking at just 6%.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not participate in the debate, but a special broadcast on X featuring his responses to questions posed in the Trump-Biden debate garnered significant social media attention with 5.6 million views.
